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The forecast for the holiday season

 
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houseofjerkyjanie

posts: 1150

Nov 12, 2008 1:09 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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With all this bad news, how are you approaching this holiday season?  Has it affected you?  Will you be shopping less and spending less? Are you shopping online or going to the stores looking for deals? Are you worried about your own business?  Did you change to free shipping?  Are you offering discounts?
 
Should we keep our positive attitudes and ignore all this? Every Restaurant I go to is still full.  In everyday life I don`t see it.  Would we feel differently if we didn`t listen to all this?  I know our economy has a problem, but has it affected all of us?.  Should we beware?
 
I am so tired of hearing all the gloom and doom on the news.  Then I read articles like this  http://tinyurl.com/5l2ul4, which just add to it.
 
Let`s talk about it.
 
Janie
 
 
houseofjerkyjanie11/12/2008 1:24 AM
CraigL

posts: 9051

Nov 12, 2008 3:08 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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We don`t expect to be affected much, other than an overall tendency for people to spend less money at the moment. But our price point is more toward affordable in the middle range, not big-ticket or small stocking stuffers. We also mostly target people with money (those with boats or a nautical interest), in a niche market.

All in all, we`re not spending more than we make, and we don`t have plans to spend money until after we get whatever we get. I think people would like to have a happy holiday season, but with so much looming on the horizon everyone`s just unsettled.

Bottom line is that the country and world have blown off opportunities to fix all this, time and time again, for 50 years. Now it`s all catching up with everyone. Debt spending likely will shut down pretty much completely, but cash spending shouldn`t change much at the moment.
SilenceDogood

posts: 41

Nov 12, 2008 8:04 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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We are personally and business-wise 100% debt free (accomplished through sacrifice, hard work and just a little bit of luck).

One part of our business has slowed to a trickle (educational software game).  I`ve discounted this and it has made no difference in sales volume.

Another part of our business has taken off with the downturn (an online application that helps schools save money).  I`ve raised my prices with this service and have seen a positive difference.

I see this downturn as an opportunity: an opportunity to get stronger, to expand / grow while others are shrinking or disappearing.

vwebworld

posts: 1237

Nov 12, 2008 3:40 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Businesses that rely on credit card purchases (higher ticket items) will likely be affected since some credit card companies have dropped the credit limits of their customers.
 
In general, it is a good time (for a business) to really examine your expenses to see what can be cut or made more efficient. Also, your revenue sources... is there another market that can be tapped? How is your target market affected by the economy?  And, your competitors, what financial shape are they in, can they withstand a downturn in sales? Are they reducing prices or changing their marketing (like starting Holiday sales now)?
 
~Roland
vwebworld11/12/2008 3:44 PM


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Web Design | Best Beef Jerky | ecommerce articles | Follow vwebworld on Twitter
CraigL

posts: 9051

Nov 12, 2008 6:45 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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One of the bits of news that should start coming out now will be the way unsecured credit loans (credit card debt) has been resold and used to shore up investment banking numbers. That and how commercial real estate has been running the same way as the private homes market.

"Debt free" is, I think the key. For anyone with cash, these are days filled with opportunities. To that end, any business that caters to people with cash should do fine. That`d mean the small- and micro-business sector should grow and expand.

We tend to sell direct, not heavily invested in chains and distribution centers. We also tend to "pay as you go," for the most part. "We" meaning these micro-business owners.

I think we`ll find that although the holiday numbers turn out dismal for traditional retail and sales, we`ll learn an interesting "contradiction" to that, when the numbers for e-commerce and small-business sales come out next year.
houseofjerkyjanie

posts: 1150

Nov 12, 2008 11:13 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I`m just going to forget worrying about all these forcasts.  Yes, the economy sounds very ugly right now.  Hopefully our new President to be, can help some of these matters.......
Anyway, I think back to every year they throw these shopping predictions in usually in November, how down holiday shopping is.  Then after December we get all the ...how good it was. So, as ususal we will see.
 
 But I know so many are suffering right now.  We were dealing with DHL for part of our shipping, which was doing an excellent job for us. But now they are ending their ground shipping due to competition.  I heard on the news that in Wilmington, Ohio, where there major flight shipping hub is that they are laying off 7,000 people.  The population of that town is 12,000. Wow.....I can understand how difficult this holiday season will probably be for many.  And that, and this economy so saddens me. 
 
 But as small business owners, as Silencedogood said, we probably need to continue and possibly see this as an opportunity for small businesses.    
 
If everything is spelled wrong, in my fast typing, I`m sorry.... for some reason my tool bar is missing!
 
Janie 
CraigL

posts: 9051

Nov 13, 2008 12:43 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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We`ve had people say that we`ll "muddle through, somehow" for so many years, it reminds me of the old fables and "crying wolf." Now, when the wolf actually appears, nobody believes the warning anymore. I suspect we`re not going to muddle through anything, this time.

And that leads to opportunities. Chaos always leads to opportunities. One major (and historic) opportunity is going to be the massive number of people suddenly wanting to shift over to some sort of self-employment framework. That`ll mean a huge increase in all sorts of skills coming to the micro-business sector.

Y`know that "buy local" rallying cry that`s starting to gain momentum? I think it`s going to grow to an important movement. We`ll start seeing a lot of interesting ways of doing business, perhaps with barter-exchange or some other novel strategies.

But out of it all, I think we`ll also see new products, new services, new concepts, and all of them will lead to new opportunities. The only concern we have, I think, is in the way online fiancial transactions take place. Right now they`re done with credit cards or PayPal type structures. If those start to "crack," we may have som bigger problems.

On the other hand, e-commerce is so huge and growing bigger, I don`t see how that sort of online financial processing could "go away," so to speak.
Nov 13, 2008 2:11 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I am trying to focus more on my business and less on what people are saying.  Business is slow, numbers are down - I am just trying to find ways to reach new customers!
CraigL

posts: 9051

Nov 13, 2008 2:47 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Hey, there, Kidsofcalifornia :-)

I looked at your site, and I think you`re part of the "other side" of all the gloom and doom. That would be the small-business sector, entrepreneurs, and people who sell real products and services.

One of the things we all should remember, and do so clearly, is that during the Great Depression of the 1930s, entertainment and luxury were booming. Look at your own thinking, and similar thinking around this community. People know there`s a problem, but we`d like to let it go every so often, not make it the central theme of life.

As such, people will always have parties, always want to dress up, and always will want to take their mind off of everyday problems. Those with money will party more expensively, but everyone wants an illusion that life is great.

You could use the keywords and phrases for "party" all over your site. "Formal dresses works, certainly enough, but why do people dress up in the first place, right? :-)
cdbartwork

posts: 210

Nov 15, 2008 12:24 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I believe Holiday sales will be down but I also believe people will look for "comfort" items. I am personally stressing "healthy" shopping this year. Since my product is for someone who is concerned about skin cancer, I am promoting buying for health reasons, to show you really care.
 
Food is always a comfort item and should do well this Holiday Season.
 
Colleen


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Colleen Dougherty Bronstein Designs
Sun Safe Designer Clothing
http://www.sunsafedesignerclothing.com
http://www.bronsteinartwork.com

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