I think a discussion involving online retailing has to include the
concept of a global economy--the globalization of business. If we do
make that inclusion, then the question isn`t whether or not ecommerce
has or is yet to reach saturation, it`s rather how organized is this
globalization.
Many people believe that "someone" is creating and forming a global
economy. But when you examine it, nobody`s doing this. It isn`t some
sort of conspiracy. It`s human nature. All of us would like to spend
the least amount of money to get the best quality and most useful
things.
Corporations can go anywhere in the world now, because of technology,
communications, transportation, and computers. Why, then, would anyone
stay only in one geographic area when they can spend less to get more
elsewhere?
Many people also hate the idea of globalization, believing that they`ll
be wiped out, lose their jobs, or whatever else. On the other hand,
everyone likes having cheap computers, TVs, cars, clothes, and seasonal
food available all year round.
One of the key principles of business (and life) is to "do what you do
best, and delegate the rest." A global economy simply means handing off
what`s less interesting and retaining or developing what`s more
interesting.
Internet business isn`t a "thing," it`s a vehicle....a distribution
channel. Neither is the Open Source community a software "company."
It`s an entirely new business model, impossible before the advent of
the Internet.
As such, Internet business is the perfect distribution channel for a
global economy. I would imagine that kiosks would replace
brick-and-mortar stores in many instances. But I also know that it
would be foolish to order a hamburger and fries online, waiting for the
post office to deliver them.
The solution there is the order-and-pickup process Wal-mart is
developing. And that`s really no diferent than the existing model of a
pizza place that either delivers or where you can pick up and carry out
your order.
Another thing online business will require is a global currency. Rapid
currency exchange can work with computers, but on a macroeconomic
level, exchange rates are problematic. Whether we`ll see such a
currency is a political problem, and in today`s world, not something
everyone really is sure they want.
Even so, the US Dollar is almost (not quite yet) a de facto
international monetary system. The collapse in our banking system has
been foreseen, but nobody wanted to really think about it. The
resulting nightmare would be so catastrophic, it was "unthinkable." And
yet, it`s happened.
It`s possible the World Bank, or International Money Fund might be made
into something that would work. Doubtful, but possible. As such, I
think Internet commerce will probably sideline the concept. What likely
would emerge would be some sort of Internet currency.
Virtual gold, for example, might become an online currency. If major
multinationals like IBM, GE, and others were to accept and promote such
a currency, then we might also see a way for Third World countries to
access development funds. I`m not sure how, but there`s at least an
outline.
Ultimately, if I sell something from Illinois to New York, I`ve
produced a borderless transaction. Only if or when the two states can
track and verify the transaction can they produce a tax. We`re already
seeing a breakdown in the whole concept of personal taxing. So I`d
expect to see a transaction tax, something like value-added tax (VAT).
If that actually comes to pass, then I would expect online commerce to
eventually be the bulk of modern business transactions. Much like
online banking, and the way banks transfer funds around the world.
Another problem then, would be who gets what percentage of that
transaction tax.
All in all, I think Internet business is at about the same stage as a
coherant, organized, structured global economy. It`s emerging and
developing.
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