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THE ECONOMICS OF THE SWINE FLU

 
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GriffithCorp

posts: 72

Apr 28, 2009 6:05 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Depending on what business you`re in, the recent Swine flu crisis will have both negative and positive impacts for business.

The makers of vaccines, emergency preparedness kits, pharma and over the counter medications will all find themselves benefiting from the crisis.

What of the pork industry?

The fact that Swine Flu has nothing at all to do with swine, pork products or raising pigs and hogs, has me baffled. And I am not alone. U.S. agencies have said time and again since the outbreak that Swine Flu has nothing to do with pork. Pork is safe to eat and pork products are safe.

The fact is that perception in the media is a powerful thing. People tend to rely on soundbites and hear what they want to hear. It doesn`t matter if pork is safe or not. We will witness a drop in the sales of pork and pork products, simply because people will make the connection between Swine Flu and pork.

This is not the first time we have witness this. When Mad Cow Disease was running rampant, we witnessed a dive in the beef industry. But the fears were legitimate at the time and the risk factors were not explained. Reports of contaminated beef were reported on the books. So, Mad Cow Disease had something to do with cows. Swine Flu has NOTHING TO DO WITH PORK.

The economics of the crisis will, of course, depend upon the seriousness or expansion of the outbreak. Only time will tell.

I feel for the farmers and manufacturers in the pork industry because they will, indeed, feel a slide in sales in the midst of an already difficult economy.

Words are powerful, and used the wrong way they can be harmful and cause unnecessary damage.

Will Griffith
www.griffithcorp.com





GriffithCorp4/28/2009 6:02 PM


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Will Griffith
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS TRIBUNAL

CraigL

posts: 9051

Apr 28, 2009 7:29 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Does it bother anyone else that this whole story seems to have "exploded" on the scene over the past week? Doesn`t it seem like a sort of sudden panic, almost like a cattle stampede?

All of us have a susceptibility to illness, and we also have an immune system. People have been getting the flu for a long time. Yes, some people die. Others don`t. Most don`t. What`s so special about this particular outbreak?

Today`s financials show that "fear" over this particular flu outbreak is causing havoc. With travel projections down, stocks in the entire hotel and travel industry are declining. Fuel and energy stocks are declining.

Then there`s the amount of money banks are supposedly holding in reserves. Somehow, not explained, an increase in the flu will mean a higher demand on money from these banks. Suspiciously, we`re about to hear the results of a Federal Reserve stress test on banks. How much money do those banks have in reserve?

Wouldn`t it be helpful if under-capitalized banks could quickly shift the blame to something out of their control? Like, say, a worldwide flu epidemic?
CraigL2009-4-28 19:30:2
houseofjerkyjanie

posts: 1150

Apr 28, 2009 10:57 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I have no idea if this is true. My Daughter is a teacher in San Diego.  One of her Parent`s is a Doctor who told her that most of those dying in San Diego have had direct contact with pigs.  Human to human contact is contagious but not much more serious than any flu.  Not sure if these facts are correct, but it made me feel  a little better.
 
Janie
MattTurpin

posts: 249

Apr 29, 2009 8:30 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Apparently this flu is getting special attention because it`s some sort of super flu, from what I understand. If I`m getting it right, the common flu virus melded with the avian flu virus and human flu virus. The result is an unstoppable juggernaut of a flu that we have no working vaccine for and that our immune systems have no experience with. However, there are a plethora of standard antiviral medical procedures that seem to do a good job. Scientists are wondering why so many Mexicans are dying while most Americans are surviving. Some say we`re only getting the weakest strains of this flu. I`m not sure that`s likely. I think the mortality rate is an issue of wealth and quality of care.

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CraigL

posts: 9051

Apr 29, 2009 11:57 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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It`s a shame that we live in a time where so many people are ignorant enough that they hear something by rumor or in the papers and believe all of it. Rumor has it that eating beef will make you crazy, and there goes the beef industry.

We`ve had the same with secondhand smoke, cellphones on airplanes, nuclear power plants, global warming, and the list goes on and on. If the pork industry gets destroyed, so what? People will figure that somehow we`ll eat something else.

Peanuts, tomatoes, spinach, alfalfa....there too, the list goes on and on. Salmonella will kill us all. Pretty soon we`ll only have tofu to eat. :-)
MattTurpin

posts: 249

Apr 30, 2009 4:25 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I was in England a couple of summers ago for one of the Mad Cow scares, and I didn`t let that stop me from enjoying a good steak. It`ll take a lot more than a slow, painful death to keep me away from a good pork chop. You only live once.

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Making limitless possibilities much more limited.
CraigL

posts: 9051

Apr 30, 2009 6:54 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I see that the World Health Organization (WHO) has announced they`re not going to call it "Swine Flu" anymore. Too many associations with pork. Note the number of ignorant people in Egypt. Jeez...!

GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization announced Thursday it will would stop using the term "swine flu" to avoid confusion over the danger posed by pigs. The policy shift came a day after Egypt began slaughtering thousands of pigs in a misguided effort to prevent swine flu.

WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said the agriculture industry and the U.N. food agency had expressed concerns that the term "swine flu" was misleading consumers and needlessly causing countries to ban pork products and order the slaughter of pigs.

"Rather than calling this swine flu ... we`re going to stick with the technical scientific name H1N1 influenza A," Thompson said.

Article continues...
CraigL2009-4-30 18:54:46
nevadascul

posts: 651

May 01, 2009 8:49 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Hi all,

I volunteer on the county hazmat team which includes biological hazards.  Here are the facts about H1N1 (swine flu) virus. 

One, this flu virus is no more dangerous than other strains of flu.  Where the problem lies is there is "CURRETNLY" no vaccine for this virus because it is a new strain.  Also, since it is a new strain, people have not build up any natural immunity to the virus.

The H1N1 virus at some point in the past was passed from a pig to a human.  But, that is not how the virus is spreading.  H1N1 virus is passing from human to human.  Pigs have no part in passing the virus.

Simple hand washing and other normal precautions are your best defense against the H1N1 virus.  Just like in the past.  Also, avoid large crowds whenever possible.  If you develop flu like symptoms, see your doctor.

Most people that have contracted the disease have developed only mild symptoms.  These pass within a few days. 

The people most likely to develop serious symptoms are the very young, the very old, people with respiratory problems and people with suppressed immune systems.  And, like in the past, these same groups of people have always been susceptible to flu viruses.

The H1N1 virus main target is the respiratory system.  So again, if you develop flu like symptoms, see a doctor.  There are medication available to combat the disease.
 
Also, the word pandemic refers to a disease that has the potential to spread throughout a large area the size of a continent, or several continents.

As far as economics, the travel, transportation  and hospitality industries are taking a beating on this.

nevadascul5/2/2009 12:15 PM


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The older we get, the more excuses we make for not chasing after our dreams. But truth is, goals are attainable at any age.
Shokoya

posts: 80

Jun 29, 2009 11:46 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Interesting...

An estimated 250,000 people die every year in UK from new strains of flu.

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist but...

Doesn`t it seem a bit odd that `swine flu` (once you name it, it becomes more scary) and `pandemic` are being used during the worst economic downturn in decades?

Off course the effects are real - but could it simply be that the authorities are blowing it`s severity out of proportion...so as to divert the masses attention from matters where a few CAN be held accountable?

Just a thought...
Shokoya6/29/2009 11:43 AM
MattTurpin

posts: 249

Jun 30, 2009 1:06 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Authorities? I doubt it. There are a million ways to make stupid people complacent. No need wasting time picking a new farm animal for the bubonic plague of the year. Even congress has better things to do. I figure it`s the news at fault. Will Kim Jong Il make a nuclear missile that can launch further than he could throw it? Probably not. And, rightly so, nobody gives a damn about North Korea - just a lunatic with short guy syndrome trying to get a minute in the spotlight. Madoff`s ponzi scheme is old news, and lots of people equate the Madoff victims with the bailout recipients - less than legal trade practices all around. Most of the news, nobody cares about. How long can you be pissed about Obama printing another trillion? Sure, come August the US currency will be worth less than the material it`s printed on, but most people don`t care. I think the news needed something. Nobody cares about swine flu anymore because June was celebrity death month, that, and because it`s just a flu.

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Making limitless possibilities much more limited.
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