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Recession proof?

 
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hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 08, 2007 6:45 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Hi,

I`m after some ideas for recession proof businesses (that could be started by most people)...
There must be lots around, but all I can think of at the minute (and in the past few weeks) are:

Debt collectors/Repo-men
Locksmiths
Undertakers

Anyone think of any other, legal ones ... ?

Don


CraigL

posts: 9051

Aug 08, 2007 11:41 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Hi Don :-)
You`ve actually asked a question that I think has some fascinating and long-reaching philosophic implications, particularly in economics. To say the same question in a more complex way, for the purpose of explaining:
What is a primary product, and what is a derivative (support, secondary, or consequential) product?

The reason for re-phrasing is to really highlight strongly the concept that we have products (and services) that "must" be in place for a functioning society. Then we have products that are somewhere after-the-fact, that don`t necessarily have to be in place.
The logic proposition: "Can we have this product without that other product, or even without people?"

Let`s say that you build cars. Many steps (support) go into making a car, but each of those steps is necessary to producing the final car. Each step also tends to be real---working with physical materials. Some are intangible, such as designing the vehicle, and the engineering. But they too are necessary.

After you`ve completed the car, you have the sales force and financing people who make the transaction happen. Someone wants a car, someone has a car, someone necessarily has to be in place to exchange the car and money.

Then you have the repair people and those who build the roads for cars, along with the suppliers of fuel and parts.

But there comes a crossing point where things become less necessary. For example, is a Car Wash a necessary product in relation to cars?

One way to ask is: "If we have no cars, can we have a car wash? If we have no car washes can we still have cars?"

Beyond the simple side of the product creation, there`s the other side of the same issue: How necessary are cars in the overall scheme of things. "Can people survive without a car? Can cars survive without people?"

I think the answer to your question begins with a "level" determination of how high up from raw survival do you want to draw the line. When you say "recession," that`s not as bad as "depression." It`s not as bad as "bankrupt" or "decimated by war or natural disaster."

People require food, water, shelter, and some type of clothing to survive. Following a nuclear war, what would be the necessary businesses and products (or government services)? That would be your basic starting point.

Debt-collectors only would work if the Law continued to function, contracs were enforceable, and the society functioned generally on money. They wouldn`t work in a barter society, or without the Law and a general "belief" in that legal structure.

Locksmiths would likely function longer, where people would try to protect their possessions and personal safety. But in a situation of anarchy, gunsmiths would likely do better than locksmiths.

So: how bad a recession do you want to postulate? :-D
CraigL2007-8-8 11:44:22
CraigL

posts: 9051

Aug 09, 2007 4:23 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Here`s an interesting business I ran into today, for real estate agents. It`s a company that, for a fee, goes around and puts in signs: For Sale, Sold, and that sort of thing. You FAX in an order, they go to the property and handle the signage.

Yet another example of the ingenuity of a free market. And an example of how a business should save money, save time, be better, or work better. What an amazing idea....and they`re jammed with orders!
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 09, 2007 7:29 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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So: how bad a recession do you want to postulate? :-D


Just a small one would do

Obviously in a depression, most of the `rules` go out of he window (or so I would have thought, never having experienced one myself, and not really having any wish to!)

I do have experience of small recessions a few times in my working life, the last one wasn`t particularly pleasant (for me at least!) and I`ve no real wish to experience it again.. Hence the search for ideas for businesses that could ride out, or even prosper, the next time one comes around.


Don
hauraki2007-8-9 7:29:37
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 09, 2007 7:52 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I can think of 2 more -
  • alcohol (when people are happy - they drink, when people are depressed - they drink)
  • gas and the oil industry - Americans LOVE their SUV 


I`d thought about alcohol , but at least here in the UK there`s absolutely no money in it whatsoever.

Don
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 11, 2007 4:37 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Don,

Are you saying that in the UK bars don´t make money? I was under the impression that it`s a drinking culture over there - you finish work, you get a pint or 2, and then you go home...

Or maybe you`re saying that selling beer doesn`t make you money?

Please explain...


OO!!
And what about titi-bars? are they legal in the UK?


Around where I live, pubs, in particular, are closing left right and centre, there are at least 5 pubs within a 4-5 mile radius of where I live that are presently boarded up, awaiting new licensees (Hey, maybe I could run a `Pub-Boarding-Up service? ) I`ve a friend who runs a pub which used to be FULL at least 5 nights a week, now it`s close to being full maybe once a week. he`s presently just counting the days until he can retire - to Spain.

There are one or two *very* successful pubs/bars/restaurants around, but they tend tro be owned by one of the big chains (Wetherspoons in particular http://www.jdwetherspoon.co.uk/ )

It may well be different in London, I don`t know!

As far as `titi bars` go... There`s one about to open near here shortly - apparently.

I`d say there was a drinking culture, but more from people buying their drink from Supermarkets rather from pubs. I know for a fact that my friend who runs the pub can ususally buy beer cheaper in the supermarket than from his brewery. (But the Brewery won`t allow him to do this.)

Don
hauraki2007-8-11 16:45:55
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 11, 2007 4:51 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Here`s an interesting business I ran into today, for real estate agents. It`s a company that, for a fee, goes around and puts in signs: For Sale, Sold, and that sort of thing. You FAX in an order, they go to the property and handle the signage.


I seem to remember the last time I sold a house here that someone came around (not from the estate agent) and did this. I also seem to remember that when we changed estate agents, the same guy came around and put up the new sign, so I guess that`s already happening around here!

But with the amount of houses going up for sale at the moment around here (hence the recession bit ) maybe there`d be enough room for someone else to grab a bit of the business as well.

Thanks,

Don
CraigL

posts: 9051

Aug 11, 2007 11:26 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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The way I look at ideas is to imagine myself in a situation like Tom Hanks, in "Castaway." I`m on an island that has maybe enough water, birds, and greenery to support me.

Now: What am I missing? First to make my life survivable, second to make it vaguely comfortable.

In a recession, people need money. So they try to sell stuff. Anyone who can do a good job selling things will have more customers than they can handle. Or if they have a venue where items can be sold easily. It`s one reason EBay is so big.

But beyond that needing money, certain things HAVE TO get done. So if the roof goes, the boiler breaks, the plumbing leaks, or the electricity fails, who ya gonna call?

It`s why this is an interesting question to me. You`re asking, basically, what`s the difference between a commodity item, a necessity, and a luxury item.

I`m also curious why so many local pubs are going out of business.
CraigL2007-8-11 23:27:47
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 12, 2007 4:10 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I was reading the prior posts and saw that you were from the UK. I know that here in the states the drinking and driving laws have gotten a lot tougher. I don`t drink but I have heard that the fines, loss of driver`s licenses are out of sight.

Are more of the people staying home to drink because of that? Just curious.

Kathy

Yes, if you`re caught drink driving, as far as I know, it`s a large fine, and at least a one year driving ban (which isn`t enough IMHO). I followed a car last Saturday night, at about midnight that had just exited a pub car park. I followed them for about 5 miles and they were swerving all over the road, at one point nearly hitting us on a roundabout. My wife called the police, but as fas as I know nothing happened about it.
I think that more people tend to drink at home (considering there`s a can of beer from the supermarket at, say, £1 (US$2) or less in bulk!   or a pint at the pub, say £2-£3 (US$4-$6) with no discount for quantity! )
So I would say it`s price rather than the drink-driving that makes people stop at home, but I`m not an expert!

Don
hauraki2007-8-12 4:11:37
hauraki

posts: 7

Aug 12, 2007 4:25 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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But beyond that needing money, certain things HAVE TO get done. So if the roof goes, the boiler breaks, the plumbing leaks, or the electricity fails, who ya gonna call?
...
I`m also curious why so many local pubs are going out of business.

Indeed, those are necessities.. I can do electrical work, or should I say I used to be able to until new Government regulations came in preventing anyone with the right paperwork doing it. I know of at least 3 people who`ve quit doing electrical work as it`s not viable any more. Similarly with Gas type work. I`ve never tried roofing .
Don`t get me wrong, it`s right that they don`t let just anyone mess with dangerous things like Electricity and Gas any more. But since I was trained in electrical work for a gas company I`m slightly miffed that I can`t do work on these without expensive `certification`
Large companies can `circumvent` these regulation to a certain extent by having a single person certified who can then `inspect` the work that`s been carried out by people without the certification..

One reason for pubs closing down I think is that apparently, there`s some Government legislation (arghhh!) that limits the percentage of pubs that a business can own in any one area. With mergers and acquisitions between companies this means that it`s easy for this percentage to be exceeded, and hence pubs have to be put up for sale. There`s quite a few planning applications around this area for these pubs to be either knocked down for housing development, or turned into apartments. Of course, some pubs are just not very good, and deserve to be closed down!
hauraki2007-8-12 4:27:15
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