Forums: Discussions for entrepreneurs and small business.

How often do you say that one of these days you`re going to finally start that business? Maybe you even suspect that you could quit your day job, then a few months later be making enough to pay the bills? But until you`ve got all those ducks in a row, "now`s not the time to take such a risky step," you say.

The problem is that these days...right now...in this time of history...this is the opportunity time! We`re in the infant stages of global communications, the Internet, and electronic commerce. It may seem that in relation to 20 years ago we`re very sophisticated, but the fact remains that what`s coming is going to be nearly unimaginable!

Throughout history we hear things like:

• Oh, you can`t hardly buy a house these days they`re so expensive!
• Well sure, but the oil barons got in on the ground floor when oil was a new thing!
• Wouldn`t it have been great to discover gold in California?
• Fine, but back then you could buy 20,000 acres for a few dollars. That`s how all those people go so rich!
• Right; try and buy a domain name these days! They`re almost all bought out by someone--some speculator!

E-commerce is still new, but it`s starting to mature. Visibility is the biggest issue; where you put out a product and try to be seen. You`re in competition with the entire world, basically. EBay is still one of the best ways to be seen.

How much longer will eBay continue to be "the hot item?" Already its getting more expensive, harder to use, and more adversarial. Will it still be simple in the next four years? What happens when there`s no more eBay, just like AOL has become an afterthought? Will the next consolidated hot item be affordable?

Remember, Sears pioneered the mail-order catalog business. Their motto was "Sears--Where America shops!" Okay, but today their motto could be "Sears--Where America used to shop!" Things change, other people catch on, and suddenly what was a big secret, everyone knows. As Yogi Berra famously said, "Nobody goes to Jones Beach anymore; there`s too many people."

Then what about the fact that it takes awhile for any new product to grow a market? If you were starting today, getting a trickle of business here and there, you could still keep your day job and work on the e-commerce site at night, right? Just a few hours after dinner, even two hours for five nights, well that would give you 520 hours invested in that business!

Over two years, a typical amount of time to "get started," you could be taking advantage of all the visibility tools, getting out there. SEO writing is a "new" thing, but already it`s becoming overdone and too crowded. How much harder is it going to be in the coming years? You`ll still have that two-year lag time, though.

Don`t be one of those people who ends up looking back, wishing they`d been "lucky" enough, or clever enough, to take advantage of the wide-open world of cottage industry. It`s going to get regulated, taxed, complicated, expensive, and there are gong to be lots of rules.

On the other hand, no matter how many accountants and politicians try to get their fingers in the pie, history constantly shows us that "grandfathering" is a way of life. It means that whatever has been going on up to the point of regulation, "those people" get to continue doing what they were doing. Only the new people have to follow the new rules.

The 1800s had the Wild West, frontiers, and unpopulated land. The 1900s introduced all sorts of technology and machines. The 2000s will be about digital information, networks, and probably off-planet exploration. WE are the people future generations will look back on and talk about as the pioneers. NOW is the time when all this is cheap, unregulated, and available.

This article came about as I watch eBay making increasingly bad decisions. Too bad for them, but not my concern. On the other hand, Google Analytics is showing that we get close to 50% of our business from links in our eBay ads. It`s a single location, with a known property---a place to find strange things to buy.

Google will likely take over from the eBay-PayPal conglomerate, as eBay becomes increasingly top-heavy. We`ll likely see something along the lines of Google-Firefox, or Google-Open Source, or something other than eBay. Where will you be at that point? Still waiting for the day when you`ll sit down and see whether or not you want to start your own business? 

Very good and thoughtful post! Interesting collation of ideas and information.

I wouldn`t say I`m making a real prediction about eBay, but I am seeing what I consider to be an emerging "trend," for want of a better word.

As a musician, mostly playing by ear, I learned that one of my heavy advantages was (is?) the ability to predict quite closely where a song would go, even when I hadn`t heard it before. It was what I called a "logical" progression in chord structure. I never bothered to study up on the field, and I`m sure there`s some science kinda data about the skill.

However, I see that I tend to also notice certain types of trends apparently earlier in the game than many other folks. I usually have to be directly involved, or the events have to have personal meaning to me. Kathy and I are very much involved in eBay at the moment, so it fits the parameters of personally interesting.

What I`m seeing is that for *very* little money we`re able to get a huge boost in our visibility. Yes, many entrepreneurs have a whole lot more startup capital than do we, and can afford a nicely organized marketing strategy. We don`t have that, and a lot of startups are in a similar condition.

In the past year, eBay has begun to make certain low-level changes to the way they "allow" people to post. At first it was just annoying, but over time, I believe I`m seeing a trend. When I projected forward, I wondered what would happen if or when eBay either goes down the drain or becomes "closed" to real bootstrappers?

Suppose you were required to open an eBay "store," rather than simply to join and post 1 oven mitt? The charges were on a monthly basis, perhaps in the realm of $30/month....what then? It`s not an outrageous amount, and many, many people would be easily able to afford it. Particularly those who had a going business.

On the other hand, we were able to use eBay as our initial market research. We could afford the $1.75 to post a small ad, to see whether or not someone would buy the product. Because it`s "pay as you go," we also were able to match our promotional costs to our sales, thereby keeping afloat.

Nothing else on the Web right now offers the same access, search, and transaction processing. Google is trying to break the eBay lock with Google Checkout, and we`ll see what happens. But again, what happens when eBay changes?

What would happen if the US Postal Service dramatically increased their shipping rates? It`s like trying to enter a national election these days. Long ago, you threw your name in the hat and off you went. Now, without millions of dollars, you can`t even get started.

Starting a small business has been an option throughout history. But I believe that right now, in our current phase of history, there`s a chaos of activity in the new world of e-commerce. It`s a window of opportunity, and based on what I`m seeing with eBay, I believe that window is about to become "formalized."

And as with anything, as soon as it becomes a formal process, that`s when it becomes much more expensive, more regulated, difficult to `break into,` and so forth.

Good Thread...I will be back again when I have more time :)

From across a stage a multi-millionaire once told me his two point plan to starting a successful business:

1. Start.
2. Stay Started

Not all businesses make it; if they did we would all be rich. It has been my experience that even in failure, I learn something. For example-- one time I tried to make it selling insurance without a "day job" to keep me going until I could get my business on my feet. From that slow, painful (business) death I learned that that is a poor way to start a business. I was too concerned with any one sale and couldn`t focus on more important things like acutally building my business.



I would like to point out that a shortage of funds is not necessarily a bad thing. Being short on funds encourages creativity to make things work :)

P-

Hi Peter :-)
That`s totally true, that not having lots of money stimulates creative ideas. We`re so often looking for ways to MAKE that money, that we`re constantly re-evaluating, developing, thinking, imagining, and so forth. And we come up with variations on our main product (signal flags), better ways to show the product, new ways to get the word, and so on.

One of the most ironic paradoxes of life is that when we`re making a good salary, getting fat and happy, we don`t often push the limits of our imagination. But when we`re broke and desperate, we often come up with lots of brilliant ideas to make money. Then we don`t have the money to implement those ideas.

It`s as if we either have a good income and don`t create much, or have no income and create plenty. To bring the two together is the big issue.

Yes I'm glad I found this forum with a group for mature entrepreneurs we have a lot to offer. I was a business adviser and worked with the Princes Trust helping young people to start up in business and with Business Link working with people of all ages who wanted to start up in business. And above is really well tips if noobs read tips carefully with proper interest.

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cloture frost