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dnparker

posts: 22

May 12, 2008 11:14 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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A book both of you might enjoy:
 
Small Pieces Loosely Joined: A Unified Theory of the Web by David Weinberger
 
Link to the book via my review:
 
 


-------------------------

Darryl Parker
Entrepreneur, CEO
http://www.parkerweb.com
http://www.iMatthews.com

Website Maintenance
RabbitMountain

posts: 423

May 13, 2008 9:31 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Craig -- well said!

Darryl -- I still don`t understand how all this marvelous technology is going to create energy. When the NE blackout happened a few years back, I could not reach my friends in NY because their technology had no energy to power it. The web and intellectual capital issues were well established by then, but it still made no difference -- they could not check their email because their computers would not turn on. Thermodynamics does apply to human intellect, because without the means of implementing great ideas in the real world it`s all for naught. Leonardo da Vinci dreamed up tanks and helicopters, it didn`t do a lot of good until we had the energy to make such things go.
dnparker

posts: 22

May 13, 2008 9:42 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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We will always have a need for energy.  Technology is dependent on energy.  We will continue to create better and more efficient ways to produce energy because of that need.  Perhaps in your view I am an optimist, but I don`t believe we are going to revert to the stone age because of the loss of one source of energy.  That loss would be overcome.

-------------------------

Darryl Parker
Entrepreneur, CEO
http://www.parkerweb.com
http://www.iMatthews.com

Website Maintenance
RabbitMountain

posts: 423

May 13, 2008 10:26 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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I would not say I think you are an optimist. I would say I think you don`t understand the science involved in this issue. There is no actual way to produce energy. That`s what the first law of thermodynamics means: all energy must be harvested from somewhere else. Because of the first law of thermodynamics, the loss of cheap petroleum is not merely the loss of one source of energy... it is the loss of our only endowment of massively concentrated sunlight, plus geologic heat and pressure, plus geologic time... there is no possible way to duplicate that. No existing energy source to which humans have access even comes a tiny fraction close to packing that much concentrated energy punch. The only exception might be global warming and all its attendant destructions, because that`s the energy form we turned fossil fuels into as we`ve been burning them these past centuries... energy is neither created nor destroyed, only changed from one form to another.

I don`t think we`re going to revert to the stone age. However, I also don`t think that business-as-usual and life-as-we-know-it are going to continue for very much longer. The implications of peak oil are enormous and they open enormous opportunities for people who don`t BS themselves.... but therein lies of the rub, because people want to think they can pour technology into their gas tanks and all will be well. Ain`t gonna happen like that..... our whole society is going to have to adjust itself to the fact that there are such things as unbreakable natural laws, and that process is where I find hope because entrepreneurs will certainly step up to the plate.

—p
skipshoe

posts: 12

May 13, 2008 3:05 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Hi guys,

I`m late to the game in this conversation, but I did want to float a few ideas on the future of the Internet.   I`m not much of prognosticator on the economy, although I did have the foresight to buy heavily into gold funds a few years back (egged on by my provervial rich uncle!).  However, I do have some thoughts on the way business and human consciousness are being affected by, as Craig calls it, the way people are using the Internet.

1) The long-tail dynamics of the web economy is fundamentally changing the nature of business.  We are no longer driven to find the 20% of the market with 80% of the revenue.  Its no longer "Its not what you know, its who you know"... but quite the opposite.  These fundamental changes to standard business tenets are being adopted by humanity through the standard "crossing the chasm" curve of early adopters to early majority, etc.    However, it is leading to a re-conception of the world as a place where work can be done part-time, expertise is highly valued and spare cycles on machines and people can be shared to solve problems.   A number of the previous posts talked about this... and I wanted to agree whole-heartedly

2) Although much of the hype of the Web has been about globalization, I think we`ll see a return to radical localization spurred on by the Internet.  Meetup.com is a great example of how the Web and local geography intersect.  My company specializes in creating virtual teams - but no matter how well we use the technology, the most satisfying meetings for our clients are the ones where we can sit down in person.    The Web extends everyones reach into their own communities - and I think social media technology will only accelerate that

3) (for something totally off the wall) I like Darryl`s reference to the emergence of new structures within humanity.  Carl Jung proposed that there is a collective consciousness shared by all of humanity.  Recently, I wondered if such a consciousness was actually the collective realization of our limbic system, then could the WWW be a collective realization of our symbol-processing neo-cortex?

Darryl`s Victor Fankl reference about the statue of responsibility is a key point.  Ghandi called one of the worldly blunders "Commerce without Morality".  These sorts of conversations are important for examining how we will behave ethically, morally and for the betterment of humanity as we find technology unlocking doors that we never imagined. 

- Skip



-------------------------

Accelerate the launch of your web business
www.teamandadream.com

Alijor

posts: 1

May 13, 2008 3:22 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Darryl,

What an interesting topic. I couldn`t resist this opportunity to share our take on the future of the internet.
More and more purchasing decisions are being taken to the internet, from shoes to cars to even real estate, as you mentioned. If there`s a way to compare prices and quality, people will come and shop. We`ve taken this trend and applied it to one of the most expensive commodities available today: healthcare.
Alijor.com is an online healthcare marketplace. We are not a directory, or a medical records service. We provide much more than just information, we provide the actual buying experience. We list providers from a variety of different specialties, and display their prices for various procedures, appointments, and consultations. Our goal is to make healthcare more transparent, and help patients identify what their health should cost them.
Some people are appalled by this concept - they claim that you simply can`t turn healthcare into a marketplace - that you can`t put a price on your health. We submit that wherever someone is making money, a marketplace exists. We intend to make that marketplace fair - and perhaps even more enjoyable - for everyone.
I`d love to hear your thoughts.

Kristy Williams
www.alijor.com



-------------------------

Kristy Williams
www.alijor.com
themerrybird

posts: 73

May 13, 2008 5:02 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Re: Voice Technology
 
Alot said here is true, and the voice idea running over the keyboard has been around for a long time... I used voice recognition software back in the early 90`s. not too mention disabled persons had this type of software ability as well. The internet is everchanging and I see big changes in the not so far away future. 
 
Depression or not.
dnparker

posts: 22

May 13, 2008 5:41 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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dnparker5/13/2008 5:43 PM


-------------------------

Darryl Parker
Entrepreneur, CEO
http://www.parkerweb.com
http://www.iMatthews.com

Website Maintenance
EveLopez

posts: 2

May 13, 2008 6:20 PM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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When I saw this post, I immediately thought of what the book "The Search" had to say about the future. My educated guess is that the future of internet and ecommerce will depend heavily on mobile use (as indicated by some of the comments on fuel/packaging issues of shipping from web purchases), as well as what will surely become a thirst for an even quicker pace of receiving goods. Right now, the internet gives us information within seconds; within the next 5-10 years, I think consumers will demand their purchases within seconds as well. Voice recognition will almost certainly play a huge role.

-------------------------

http://members.work.com/Eve-Lopez
CraigL

posts: 9051

May 14, 2008 12:49 AM ET    Quote  Report Abuse
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Darryl, you`re suggesting a move toward urbanization, but I think I`d disagree with that. Yes, we`re seeing an increase in the urban population, but are the people using computers and technology...or is it an increasing gathering of the technologically unsophisticated?

I`m wondering about this, given the seeming move toward the suburbs. I would argue that instead of urban centers, we`ll see an increase in "collar" communities and telecommuting. I`d think that the more efficient way of doing things would be to use the urban centers as "distribution" points, fed by work from those surrounding communities.

If that were the case, then I think we`d use energy more efficiently by having transportation and shipping go to urban "hubs," and then move outward. We might use as a model something like Walmart`s ordering online, then shipping to their local store for pickup by the customer.

Skip said:
3) (for something totally off the wall) I like Darryl`s reference to the emergence of new structures within humanity.  Carl Jung proposed that there is a collective consciousness shared by all of humanity.  Recently, I wondered if such a consciousness was actually the collective realization of our limbic system, then could the WWW be a collective realization of our symbol-processing neo-cortex?

Actually, this isn`t all that off the wall. I`ll argue that everything humanity creates is a physical representation of ideas and consciousness. I don`t mean in the New Age sense, but rather in a psychological sense. We can`t help it, as we`re creating using our own minds.

To that end, a computer is a physical reflection of human mind---we think a certain way, so we create a machine that also thinks in that way. We wouldn`t understand the machine if it weren`t similar to how our own mind and brain functions.

The human race---and yes, it`s interesting that Interent future discussions naturally lead to the future of humanity---is indeed at a crossroads. We can move backward, becoming primitive again, or we can move forward, evolving into something new.

I`ll also argue the case that the only two reasons societies form are that nature selects for 1) conserving resources, and 2) sharing stored information. That`s the underlying case for the "two heads are better than one" idea Darryl brought up.

This discussion almost immediately focused on both selectors, with raw energy (to power the Internet), and shared information---the Internet itself. If we make an analogy of previous societies being hunting-gathering, the local marketplace is a sort of moment of opportunity. We hunt for local customers, gather money, and so forth. Or; we hunt for bargains, and gather merchandise as we buy it.

Eventually, all small tribes run out of local resources and so they have to move. Historically, the human race has tended to move---explore. We`ve colonized, discovered, pioneered, and set up farms. And that`s the thing---the agricultural shift that brought about modern society conserves resources by using sustainable methods, and stores information across multiple generations.

We can`t move anymore, unless we move into space or the deep ocean. But the Internet offers a better way to conserve resources, with things like remote working and education. It definitely improves stored information (and its access).

However!...ALL of this critically depends on the mail system, shipping, transportation, and therefore, energy and logistics. It also is critically dependent upon electrical power. And that`s where I think Paula is suggesting that as we run out of energy for electricity and shipping, the Internet will shrink.

I think we may run out of competent shipping people before we`ll run out of electrical energy. :-)
CraigL2008-5-14 1:3:11
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