I can say from my size that some companies (main small and middle size) will consider move their IT paid applications to Open Source ones.
It will happen for some simple reasons:
· The support subscription price of an Open Source Software is MUCH CHEAPER than the License price of a paid one.
· The Open Source software allow the company to have access to the source code and make all changes to suit it for their needs (which varies widely from company to company in the SMB market) or make the software integrate with any other application.
· No legal requirements, contracts or loyalty contracts are needed, making the acquisition process easier and faster.
Just take a look in this interesting article http://weblog.infoworld.com/openresource/archives/2009/02/open_source_erp.html and keep your eyes in companies as OrangeHRM, SugarCRM, OpenBravo, Linux, MySQL, Pentaho etc. All of them are Open Source, provide stable and good software and have been experiencing a huge growing in the past years.
Summarizing my opinion, neither outsourcing IT neither keep home based solutions. The trend will move to new License Models as GPL (General Public License) and others similar.
O range HRM Inc.
web : www.orangehrm.com
538 Teal Plaza
Secaucus, NJ 07094
Open Source HR Management